Goats,Cars,Boys and Girls

In the second class on Tuesday, we looked at a problem of boys and girls where the probability space has only 3 elements. Despite the extreme simplicity of the problem if the setup has been done right, many people give the wrong answer.

This problem and the three door problem, which we looked at in the third class on Thursday shows that a solid mathematical foundation of probability theory is necessary. The problem of getting the wrong answer in such questions is not stupidity but only ignorance of the right tools.

Marilyn says to the three doors problem: "I'm receiving thousands of letters, nearly all insisting that I'm wrong. Of the letters from the general public, 92% are against my answer; and of the letters from universities, 65% are against my answer. Overall, nine out of 10 readers completely disagree with my reply."

Ask Marilyn by Marilyn vos Savant is a column in Parade Magazine, According to Parade, Marilyn vos Savant is listed in the "Guinness Book of World Records Hall of Fame" for "Highest IQ."
  1. Prob. of Boys [local copy]
  2. Gameshow [local copy]
Check out the cite Interactive Mathematics puzzles for more puzzles.
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